Andrews To Vote First, Napthine To Concede At The Eighth Hour

Daniel Andrews will be the most eager of the two leaders to get the election over and done with tomorrow according to online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au.
 
With Labor the short $1.13 favourite to win the election, and Sportsbet having already paid out on their victory, Andrews is expected to cast his vote first at $1.70 ahead of Napthine at $2.05.
 
His zealousness looks justified, as Denis is a $2.50 favourite to make his conceding speech between 7pm and 8pm on Saturday night at $2.50.
 
The count being drawn out into the early hours of Sunday is a large outsider in the market, after midnight paying $15.
 
Sportsbet are also betting on the tie colours chosen by the two leaders but don’t expect any flamboyant decisions as both of their parties colours (Red & Blue) are $1.10 shots.
 
“We’ll obviously be watching the results with great interest after paying out over $100,000 early but thankfully the odds indicate the count will be over quicker than a Black Caviar race,” said sportsbet.com.au‘s Will Byrne.
 
2014 Victorian State Election Winner
$1.13   Labor             
$5.50   Liberals           
 
First Leader to cast their vote
$1.70   Daniel Andrews
$2.05  Denis Napthine
 
What time will Napthine concede?
$8.00   6pm to 7pm
$2.50   7.01pm – 8pm
$4.00   8.01pm – 9pm
$6.00   9.01pm – 10pm
$8.00   10.01pm – 11pm
$12      11.01pm – 12am
$15      After midnight
 
What colour tie will Andrews wear
$1.10   Red
$10     Purple
$11     Blue
$12     Green
$13     Brown
$14     Pink
$15      Silver
$16     Grey
$17     Yellow
$26     Black
$41     Australian Flag design
$51     Black with CMFEU slogan
                
What colour tie will Napthine wear
$1.10   Blue
$9.00  Green
$10      Gold
$11     Purple 
$12     Silver 
$15     Grey
$16     Pink
$21     Rainbow
$31     Red
 

Punters Rally Late For The Coalition

Online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au may have counted their Daniel Andrews chickens before they hatched, reporting a late surge in money for Denis Napthine’s Coalition.
 
Having already paid out early on a Labor victory, they have now eased in the betting for the first time in weeks, moving from $1.13 to $1.19 while the Coalition’s chances of victory increase from $5.50 into $4.50.
 
But the egg is still very much in the frying pan at those odds, so much so that Sportsbet has begun taking bets on Napthine’s future with $1.67 on offer that he’ll resign by Monday.
 
“We’re getting a bit hot under the collar looking at the bets coming through for Napthine’s team. If the Coalition were to win we’d be forking out close to half a million overall having jumped the gun by paying out early on Labor,” said sportsbet.com.au‘s Will Byrne.
 
2014 Victorian State Election Winner
$1.19   Labor            
$4.50   Liberals          
 
Will Napthine resign before Monday?
$1.67   Yes
$2.20   No

Labour Firms For Election Win, Mill Park To Lead The Celebrations

With each passing day Labor are edging closer and closer to returning to government according to online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au.
 
The Daniel Andrews led party are now into odds of $1.13 from $1.14 yesterday while Dennis Napthine should have been digging for answers to save his campaign in Frankston today as the Coalition drift from $5.00 out to $5.50.
 
Sportsbet has now opened betting on what seats the respective parties will perform the best in – with Labor expected to be empathically cheered over the line in Mill Park at $1.83.
 
The Liberals will look to Malvern for their best result at $2.10 and running mates the Nationals hope to over perform in Murray Plains.
 
But while the Greens find themselves at short odds of $1.55 to not win a seat, Melbourne is expected to be their main hunting ground on $2.50.
 
“Daniel Andrews can well and truly start working on that victory speech according to the betting, his party could be at Black Caviar odds by the time the polls open on Saturday,” said sportsbet.com.au‘s Will Byrne.
 
2014 Victorian State Election Winner
$1.13   Labor              
$5.50   Liberals         
 
Seat Labor performs best in
$1.83   Mill Park
$2.30   Broadmeadows
$21      Kororoit
$21      Yuroke
$26      Thomastown
$26      Preston
$26      St Albans
$26      Pascoe Vale
$26      Dandenong
$26      Lara
$31      Melton
$31      Footscray
 
Seat Liberals perform best in
$2.10   Malvern
$6.00  Mornington
$7.00   Warrandyte
$7.00   Sandringham
$8.00   Hawthorn
$8.00   Narracan
$10      Kew
$15      Bulleen
$26      Benambra
 
Seat Nationals perform best in
$2.25  Murray Plains
$3.75   Gippsland South
$8.00   Ovens Valley
$8.00   Lowan
$12      Mildura
$12      Morwell
$12      Gippsland East
$15      Shepparton
$15      Euroa
$31      Eildon
$51      Ripon
$101    Buninyong
 
Seat Greens perform best in
$2.50   Melbourne
$9.00   Richmond
$3.00   Brunswick
$4.00   Northcote
$15      Prahran

Punter Plonks 41k On Labor To Win Victorian State Election

An election punter who successfully wagered more than $245,000 on the Coalition to win last year’s federal election has been slowly increasing his stake on Labor taking out Saturday’s Victorian state election.

Since May, the Sportingbet.com.au punter has placed 11 bets totalling $41,310 on a Labor victory, at odds ranging between $1.70 and $1.17.

“This punter rarely gets it wrong and we expect he’ll be back for more between now and Saturday,” Sportingbet’s Andrew Brown said.

“Labor isn’t quite at Black Caviar odds but punters have been piling on the party to win and treating the potential return as better than bank interest.”

Labor is currently $1.17 at Sportingbet with the Coalition $5.

It’s a $2.40 favourite at Sportingbet that Labor will win between 45-49 seats. It’s $2.50 that Labor will win between 50-54 seats.

Meanwhile, Sportingbet has commenced betting on which party Jacqui Lambie will join following her split with PUP. The Democratic Labour Party and Motoring Enthusiasts share $3.75 favouritism. The Sex Party is the $41 outsider.

“Jumping into bed with the Sex Party is long odds but can’t be beyond the realm of possibility based on previous desires we’ve heard from the senator.”

Which party will Jacqui Lambie join?

Democratic Labour Party $3.75

Motoring Enthuisasts $3.75

Family First $4

Liberal Democrats $6

KAP $7

Labor $13

Liberal $17

Greens $34

Sex Party $41

 

Victorian State Election – Winning Party

Labor $1.17

Coalition $5.00

 

Will the Greens win a seat?

No $1.50

Yes $2.40

 

Labor – Total seats won

45-49 seats $2.40

50-54 seats $2.50

40-44 seats $5

55-59 seats $6

39 or less seats $12

60+ seats $19

 

Coalition – Total seats won

35-39 seats $2.20

40-44 seats $3

34 or less seats $4.25

45-49 seats $5.50

50-54 seats $14

55+ seats $41

 

Labor v Coalition – Seats Handicap

Labor -8.5 $1.90

Coalition +8.5 $1.90

 

Hung Parliament?

No $1.06

Yes $8

 

Seat Of Shepparton

Coalition $1.01

Any other $15

Labor $17

 

Seat Of Gippsland East 

Coalition $1.04

Any other $10

Labor $19

 

Seat Of Gippsland South

Coalition $1.01

Any other $15

Labor $17

 

Seat Of Lowan

Coalition $1.01

Any other $15

Labor $17

 

Seat Of Malvern 

Coalition $1.01

Labor $15

Any Other $17

 

Seat Of Ovens Valley

Coalition $1.01

Labor $15

Any Other $17

 

Seat Of Warrendyte

Coalition $1.01

Labor $15

Any Other $17

 

Seat Of Hawthorn

Coalition $1.02

Labor $13

Any Other $17

 

Seat Of Mornington

Coalition $1.02

Labor $13

Any Other $17

 

Seat Of Narracan

Coalition $1.02

Labor $13

Any Other $17

 

Seat Of Benambra

Coalition $1.02

Labor $13

Any Other $17

 

Seat Of Kew

Coalition $1.02

Labor $13

Any Other $17

 

Seat Of Sadringham

Coalition $1.02

Labor $13

Any Other $17

 

Seat Of Bulleen

Coalition $1.02

Labor $13

Any Other $17

 

Seat Of Mildura

Coalition $1.02

Labor $13

Any Other $17

 

Seat Of Brighton

Coalition $1.02

Labor $13

Any Other $17

 

Seat Of Polwarth

Coalition $1.02

Labor $13

Any Other $17

 

Seat Of Nepean

Coalition $1.02

Labor $13

Any Other $17

 

Seat Of Euroa

Coalition $1.01

Labor $15

Any Other $17

 

Seat Of Morwell 

Coalition $1.55

Labor $2.70

Any Other $6

 

Seat Of Evelyn

Coalition $1.02

Labor $11

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Bass

Coalition $1.04

Labor $8.50

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Croydon

Coalition $1.06

Labor $7.50

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of South-West Coast

Coalition $1.04

Labor $8.50

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Ferntree Gully

Coalition $1.08

Labor $6.50

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Caulfield

Coalition $1.06

Labor $7.50

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Hastings

Coalition $1.10

Labor $6

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Box Hill

Coalition $1.04

Labor $10

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Gembrook

Coalition $1.08

Labor $6.50

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Mount Waverley

Coalition $1.16

Labor $4.50

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Eildon

Coalition $1.18

Labor $4.50

Any Other $15

 

Seat Of Bayswater

Coalition $1.30

Labor $3.20

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Ringwood

Coalition $1.50

Labor $2.40

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Burwood

Coalition $1.33

Labor $3.10

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of South Barwon

Coalition $1.65

Labor $2.10

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Prahan

Coalition $1.36

Labor $3.20

Any Other $8

 

Seat Of Forest Hill

Coalition $1.75

Labor $2.00

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Bellarine

Labor $1.36

Coalition $2.90

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Ripon

Coalition $1.34

Labor $3.00

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Mordialloc

Labor $1.55

Coalition $2.30

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Monbulk

Labor $1.22

Coalition $4

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Bentleigh

Labor $1.30

Coalition $3.20

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Frankston

Labor $1.14

Coalition $5

Any Other $17

 

Seat Of Carrum

Labor $1.27

Coalition $3.40

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Wendouree

Labor $1.14

Coalition $5

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Yan Yean

Labor $1.15

Coalition $4.65

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Eltham

Labor $1.22

Coalition $3.85

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Albert Park

Labor $1.12

Coalition $5.50

Any Other $15

 

Seat Of Cranbourne

Labor $1.10

Coalition $5.50

Any Other $26

 

Seat Of Buninyong

Labor $1.08

Coalition $6.50

Any Other $26

 

Seat Of Ivanhoe

Labor $1.12

Coalition $5.50

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Macedon

Labor $1.47

Coalition $2.50

Any Other $26

 

Seat Of Mulgrave

Labor $1.08

Coalition $6.50

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Bendigo West

Labor $1.08

Coalition $6.50

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Bendigo East

Labor $1.02

Coalition $11

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Geelong

Labor $1.14

Coalition $5

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Essendon

Labor $1.06

Coalition $7.50

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Niddrie

Labor $1.01

Coalition $13.00

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of  Narre Warren North

Labor $1.02

Coalition $11.00

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Oakleigh

Labor $1.04

Coalition $9.00

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Sunbury

Labor $1.06

Coalition $7.50

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Narre Warren South

Labor $1.02

Coalition $11

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Keysborough

Labor $1.01

Coalition $13

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Bundoora

Labor $1.01

Coalition $13

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Tarneit

Labor $1.01

Coalition $13

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Werribee

Labor $1.01

Coalition $13

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Sydenham

Labor $1.01

Coalition $13

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Clarinda

Labor $1.01

Coalition $13

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Altona

Labor $1.01

Coalition $13

Any Other $21

 

Seat Of Melbourne

Labor $1.35

Any Other $2.75

Coalition $26

 

Seat Of Richmond

Labor $1.20

Any other $4

Coalition $19

 

Seat Of Brunswick

Labor $1.12

Any other $5.50

Coalition $21

 

Seat Of Northcote

Labor $1.08

Any other $6.50

Coalition $21

 

Seat Of Rowville

Coalition $1.02

Labor $11

Any other $21

Labor Hit 50 Seats With Five Days Until Polling

Daniel Andrews’ Labor are well and truly close to the finish line with the latest seat count from online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au indicating that the party will pick up 50 seats this Saturday.

Mordialloc has become the latest seat to change favouritism, having previously edged in favour of the Coalition, now punter support has moved Labor from $2.12 into $1.55 with the Coalition drifting $1.68 out to $2.30.

There has been some movement towards the Coalition in other seats however:

  • Bayswater – Coalition move from $1.33 into $1.37.
  • Buninyong – Team Napthine gets a $7.00 into $6.00 boost.
  • Forest Hill – Coalition now take control of a seat previously too close to call, in from $1.85 to $1.75.
  • Ivanhoe – Still the outsiders but slight move for the Coalition from $7.00 into $5.00.
  • Narre Warren North – Similar story with a $7.00 into $5.50 move for the Coalition.

“Napthine’s party are starting to make a fight of it in some seats but the overall state of play indicates an emphatic swing to Labor,” said sportsbet.com.au‘s Will Byrne.

2014 Victorian State Election Winner
$1.18               Labor
$4.50               Liberals

Albert Park
$1.33               Labor              

$3.50               Coalition
$15                  Tex Perkins

Altona
$1.01               Labor              

$12                  Coalition

Bass
$1.02            Coalition             

$10                     Labor          

Bayswater
$1.33             Coalition         

$3.10                  Labor              

Bellarine
$1.22               Labor

$3.90               Coalition          

Benambra
$1.01               Coalition             

$12                       Labor          

Bendigo East
$1.06               Labor            

$7.50               Coalition

Bendigo West
$1.06               Labor            

$7.50               Coalition

Bentleigh
$1.35               Labor               

$2.80               Coalition

Box Hill
$1.05             Coalition         

$6.00                  Labor               

Brighton
$1.02             Coalition             

$10                      Labor                    

Broadmeadows
$1.01               Labor            

$12                  Coalition

Brunswick
$1.10               Labor              

$11                    Greens
$14                  Coalition

Bulleen
$1.01            Coalition            

$12                    Labor                     

Bundoora
$1.01               Labor            

$12                   Coalition

Buninyong
$1.10               Labor

$6.00               Coalition

Burwood
$1.20               Coalition         

$4.00                   Labor

Carrum
$1.26               Labor              

$3.50               Coalition          

Caulfield
$1.03            Coalition         

$10                    Labor

Clarinda
$1.01               Labor            

$12                   Coalition

Cranbourne
$1.12               Labor           

$5.50               Coalition       

Croydon
$1.02           Coalition         

$11                    Labor

Dandenong
$1.01               Labor           

$12                  Coalition

Eildon
$1.10             Coalition         

$6.00                 Labor

Eltham
$1.15                Labor              

$5.00               Coalition          

Essendon
$1.04               Labor           

$8.50               Coalition     

Euroa
$1.02             Coalition            

$10                      Labor             

Evelyn
$1.03               Coalition         

$10                       Labor

Ferntree Gully
$1.10               Coalition            

$6.00               Labor            

Footscray
$1.05               Labor             

$7.00               Coalition          

Forest Hill
$1.75               Coalition        

$2.00                   Labor

Frankston
$1.15               Labor              

$5.00               Coalition
$21                  Geoff Shaw      

Geelong
$1.15               Labor              

$5.00               Coalition          

Gembrook
$1.14               Coalition            

$5.00                   Labor            

Gippsland East
$1.01              Coalition            

$12                      Labor            

Gippsland South
$1.01             Coalition            

$12                     Labor

Hastings
$1.14               Coalition            

$5.00                   Labor            

Hawthorn
$1.01               Coalition            

$12                       Labor

Ivanhoe
$1.14               Labor                      

$5.00               Coalition
$13                  Craig Langdon

Kew
$1.01            Coalition            

$12                    Labor

Keysborough
$1.01               Labor           

$12                  Coalition

Kororoit
$1.01               Labor           

$12                  Coalition

Lara
$1.01               Labor           

$12                  Coalition     

Lowan
$1.01               Coalition          

$12                      Labor

Macedon
$1.40               Labor              

$2.75               Coalition         

Malvern
$1.01            Coalition          

$12                    Labor   

Melbourne
$1.55               Labor              

$2.50               Greens
$19                  Coalition

Melton
$1.01               Labor           

$12                  Coalition         

Mildura
$1.01               Coalition          

$12                      Labor   

Mill Park
$1.01               Labor           

$12                  Coalition         

Monbulk
$1.15               Labor              

$5.00               Coalition          

Mordialloc
$1.55               Labor

$2.30               Coalition

Mornington
$1.01               Coalition          

$12                       Labor   

Morwell
$1.70           Nationals                                

$3.50               Labor
$4.50            Tracie Lund Independent

Mount Waverly
$1.14               Coalition          

$5.00                  Labor

Mulgrave
$1.05               Labor              

$8.00               Coalition

Murray Plains
$1.01           Coalition          

$12                   Labor

Narracan
$1.01               Coalition          

$12                      Labor   

Narre Warren North
$1.09               Labor            

$5.50               Coalition       

Narre Warren South
$1.10                Labor              

$6.00               Coalition

Nepean
$1.02               Coalition          

$10                       Labor

Niddrie
$1.04               Labor              

$8.50               Coalition

Northcote
$1.04            Labor              

$13                  Greens
$16                  Coalition
$21                  Kris Schroeder (Rock ‘n’ Roll Party)

Oakleigh
$1.04               Labor           

$8.50               Coalition

Ovens Valley
$1.01               Coalition           

$12                  Labor

Pascoe Vale
$1.01               Labor           

$12                  Coalition            

Polwarth
$1.02          Coalition           

$10                  Labor        

Prahran
$1.20          
 Coalition          
$4.00               Labor

Preston
$1.01               Labor           

$12                  Coalition

Richmond
$1.26               Labor              

$4.00               Greens
$16                  Coalition

Ringwood
$1.37               Coalition         

$2.90               Labor

Ripon
$1.10               Coalition
$5.00               Labor

Rowville
$1.02               Coalition           

$10                  Labor

Sandringham
$1.01               Coalition           

$12                  Labor

Shepparton
$1.01               Coalition           

$12                  Labor

South Barwon
$1.45               Coalition         

$2.50               Labor

South-West Coast
$1.04               Coalition         

$9.00               Labor

St Albans
$1.02               Labor           

$10                  Coalition

Sunbury
$1.04               Labor              

$9.00               Coalition          

Sydenham
$1.01               Labor           

$12                  Coalition

Tarneit
$1.02               Labor              

$10                  Coalition

Thomastown
$1.01               Labor           

$12                  Coalition

Warrandyte
$1.01               Coalition           

$12                       Labor     

Wendouree
$1.10               Labor              

$6.00               Coalition          

Werribee
$1.01               Labor           

$12                  Coalition     

Williamstown
$1.01               Labor           

$12                  Coalition

Yan Yean
$1.10               Labor              

$6.00               Coalition

Yuroke
$1.01               Labor           

$12                  Coalition

City Slickers Turned Off By Election

Maybe it’s the hangover from Friday night’s shenanigans or not to be missed two-for-one coffees on offer in a funky artistic laneway but one thing is for sure, the city dwellers in Melbourne will struggle to go to polling booths this Saturday according to the odds from online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au.

The bookie has opened a market on which seat will have the lowest turnout at the State election and Melbourne is a clear $2.00 favourite in the market with Albert Park sporting a $3.00 chance.

Richmond ($3.50), Broadmeadows and Prahran (both $4.00), make up the only seats under double figures while Yan Yean residents are probably already lining up judging from their $201 outsider price.

Meanwhile, when the results start to roll in on Saturday night, there’s no separating Forest Hill and Bellarine in an expected tight race, as Sportsbet predicts either of those seats to take the longest to be officially declared, both at $5.00.

“People say Melbournians are too cool for school and this is the evidence we’ve been looking for. They stayed in bed back in 2010 and look likely to hit the snooze button again at this election,” sportsbet.com.au‘s Will Byrne said.

Seat with Lowest Turnout

$2.00   Melbourne 

$3.00   Albert Park

$3.50   Richmond

$4.00   Broadmeadows

$4.00   Prahran

$11      Dandenong

$12      Footscray

$19      Brunswick, Caulfield, St Albans

$21      Clarinda, Kororoit, Mildura, Northcote, Pascoe Vale, Preston

$26      Essendon, Frankston, Hawthorn, Williamstown

$34      Altona, Benambra, Box Hill, Brighton, Cranbourne, Ivanhoe, Kew, Keysborough, Malvern, Melton, Mulgrave, Nepean, Oakleigh, Shepparton, Tarneit, Thomastown

$41      Bendigo West, Eildon, Lara, Mill Park, Morwell, Sandringham

$51      Bentleigh, Bulleen, Bundoora, Buninyong, Burwood, Carrum, Euroa, Geelong, Hastings, Mordialloc, Mornington, Mount Waverley, Narracan, Narre Warren North, Narre Warren South, Niddrie, Ovens Valley, Sydenham, Wendouree

$67      Bayswater, Forest Hill, Gembrook, Gippsland East, Gippsland South, Monbulk, Murray Plains, Ripon, Rowville, Yuroke

$81      Bendigo East, Croydon, Eltham, Evelyn, Ferntree Gully, Macedon, Ringwood, South-West Coast, Sunbry, Werribee

$101    Bass, Bellarine, South Barwon, Warrandyte

$151    Lowan, Polwarth

$201    Yan Yean    

Last seat to be declared

$5.00   Forest Hill

$5.00   Bellarine

$5.50   Ripon

$4.50   Melbourne

$6.00   Mordialloc, Monbulk

$7.00   Bentleigh, Frankston

$8.00   Carrum, Yan Yean

$10      Wendouree, Richmond

$12      Brunswick, Northcote, Eltham

$15      Albert Park, Cranbourne

$17      Buninyong, Ivanhoe, Macedon, Mulgrave, Bendigo West

$19      Bendigo East, Geelong, Prahran

$26      South Barwon, Burwood, Ringwood, Bayswater

$51      Eildon

$67      Mount Waverley, Gembrook, Box Hill, Hastings, Caulfield, Ferntree Gully, South-West Coast, Croydon, Bass, Evelyn, Rowville, Morwell, Euroa, Nepean, Polwarth, Brighton, Essendon, Niddrie, Narre Warren North, Oakleigh, Sunbury, Narre Warren South, Keysborough, Bundoora, Tarneit, Werribee, Sydenham, Altona, Clarinda, Williamstown, Mildura, Bulleen, Sandringham, Kew, Benambra, Narracan, Thomastown, Mornington, Hawthorn, Warrandyte, Ovens Valley, Malvern, Lowan, Gippsland South, Gippsland East, Shepparton, Murray Plains, Melton

$101    Lara, Dandenong, St Albans, Footscray, Yuroke, Mill Park, Kororoit, Pascoe Vale

$201    Broadmeadows, Preston

2014 Victorian State Election Winner

$1.14               Labor
$5.00               Liberals

 

Punter Places $20,000 Bet On Labor

One customer with online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au is extremely confident in Daniel Andrews’ Labor winning the election next Saturday after placing a massive $20,000 bet with the bookie at odds of $1.16.

Labor have now shortened into $1.14 while the Liberals are out from $4.50 to $5.00.

“Andrews and Napthine are both on the lookout for endorsements but money talks – a $20,000 wager is the greatest sign you’re over the line,” said sportsbet.com.au‘s Will Byrne.

2014 Victorian State Election Winner
$1.14               Labor              
(in from $1.16) 
$5.00               Liberals           (out from $4.50)

Meanwhile, Sportsbet has opened betting on how many Victorians will show up to vote next Saturday with 92.51% to 93% the $2.75 favourite in the market.

Falling below the 92% benchmark, which would reap a nice early windfall in payments made to an incoming government, is paying $6.00.

While an eager public response of over 94% to either kick out the current government or show an overwhelming display of support is offered at $13.

“Victorians really don’t mess around when it comes to casting a vote – either they’re extremely passionate about politics or just a bit tight with cash!” sportsbet.com.au‘s Will Byrne said.

Voter Turnout

$6.00   Under 92%

$3.50   92.00% – 92.50%

$2.75   92.51% – 93.00%   

$3.75   93.01% – 93.50%

$7.00   93.51% – 94.00%

$13      Over 94%

Andrews Wins Debate But Liberals Firm For Election

Daniel Andrews has walked away the winner of tonight’s debate, but Denis Napthine may be the last one laughing, with the Liberals firming to win the election.

With only one vote difference in the poll, online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au have moved the Liberals in from $4.60 to $4.50.

The Liberals were priced at $5.20 only days ago, continuing the recent push from punters towards the current government.

Daniel Andrews and Labor remain favourites to win the November 29 election, but have drifted slightly from $1.17 to $1.18.

Sportsbet has opened more markets on Victorian politics after the debate, including:

  • Never mind the East-West Link, toilets were the big talking point at the debate! $1.85 has been priced that the first toilet at Southland station will be in 2015, with $1.50 that Napthine will backflip on his stance.
  • Medical Marijuana may also be here before we know it, with $3.00 priced that it will be made legal in the second half of 2015.

“Andrews may have won the debate, but Napthine was far from disgraced and the fact there was only one vote in the poll shows that maybe the election isn’t a one sided affair,” said sportsbet.com.au‘s Shaun Anderson.

2014 Victorian State Election Winner

$1.18               Labor           (out from $1.17)   
$4.50               Liberals           (in from $4.60)

When will the first toilet be flushed in Southland station?

$1.85     2015
$3.30     2016
$3.10     2017 or later or never

Will Napthine backflip on no toilets in Southland station?

$1.50     Yes
$2.50     No

When will Victoria get medial Marijuana?

$16.00   By Dec 31 2014
$3.25     After Jan 1 2015 but before June 30 2015
$3.00     After July 1 2015 but  before Dec 31 2015
$3.50     2016
$4.00     2017 or later, or never

Palmer Moves To Slaughter Lambie

The game of political chess being played out in the public eye between Clive Palmer and Jacqui Lambie took another turn today as he suspended the outspoken senator and removed her as deputy Senate leader.
 
With speculation intensifying that the Tassie senator will break away from the PUP, online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au has opened betting on what party she will join should she choose to.
 
The Democratic Labour Party leads the race at $3.50 ahead of Family First on $3.75, while PUP ally Ricky Muir’s Motoring Enthusiasts are a $4.00 start.
 
Single Lambie’s long search for her donkey-man could be helped should she choose to frolic with the Sex Party – a $34 chance with Sportsbet.
 
Despite the turmoil, Lambie is a $1.50 shot to be re-elected and $2.50 to lose her seat whereas joining fellow madcap Pauline Hanson by setting up their own party is paying $4.00.
 
“Palmer is pulling no punches but he stopped short of expelling her from the party. She looks likely to jump ship though and some of the minor political parties could do with having her high profile in their team,” said sportsbet.com.au‘s Will Byrne.
 
What party will she join?
$3.50   Democratic Labour Party
$3.75   Family First    
$4.00   Motoring Enthusiasts
$6.00   Liberal Democrats
$8.00   KAP    
$15      Labor   
$21      Liberal 
$34      Greens   
$34      Sex Party
 
Will she be re-elected?
$1.50   Yes
$2.50   No  
 
Will she form a party with Pauline Hanson?
$1.20   No 
$4.00   Yes

Goyte Won’t Rock The Vic Election As Money Comes For Liberals

Gotye may be someone that we used to know but it doesn’t look like voters will know him or bandmate Kris Schroeder when it comes to the Victorian election.

It’s almost a sure thing that the Basics Rock ‘n’ Roll Party won’t hit any high notes in the world of politics, priced at $8.00 to win a seat with online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au.

Schroeder’s chances of victory in the seat of Northcote are about as long as Gotye becoming a rapper, priced at $21 ahead of Labor ($1.04), the Greens ($13) and the Coalition ($16).

In other Victorian election betting news:

  • Fellow musician Tex Perkins also looks unlikely to trade in his guitar any time soon, $15 to win the Albert Park seat.
  • The Palmer United Party could be the most successful minority party, priced at $2.30 to win a seat. The Sex Party ($10) and the Socialist Alliance ($51) are the big outsiders.
  • The big money is coming for the Liberals – a bet of $2,000 was placed today on them at $5.00 for a win of $10,000. They are now into $4.60.
  • Daniel Andrews may have the last laugh tonight, priced at $1.50 to win the debate with Napthine a $2.50 outsider.

“If it was a competition on coolness Gotye and his mates would have both Andrews and Napthine covered by a mile. But the betting shows Goyte and the Basics Rock ‘n’ Roll Party shouldn’t give up their day jobs any time soon,” said sportsbet.com.au‘s Shaun Anderson.

2014 Victorian State Election Winner
(Prices in brackets from Tuesday 18 November)
$1.17               Labor           
   (out from $1.15)             
$4.60               Liberals           (in from $5.00)

Minor Party to win a seat

$2.30             Palmer United Party
$3.50               Democratic Labour Party, Voice for the West
$4.00               Family First, Australian Christians, Rise Up Australia Party, Shooters and Fishers Party
$5.00               Australian Country Alliance, People Power/ No Smart Meters
$6.00               Animal Justice Party
$7.00               Australian Cyclists Party
$8.00              Basics Rock ‘n’ Roll Party
$10                   Sex Party
$51                   Socialist Alliance

Who will win the leaders debate?

$1.50             Daniel Andrews
$2.50               Denis Napthine

Terms:  Based on winner of November 19 debate, as determined by Sky News poll of audience.

Who will attend the debate?

$1.80             Sean Armistead, Paul Edbrooke
$2.20              Matthew Guy
$2.50              Ted Ballieu, Geoff Shaw
$7.00              Neil Mitchell
$8.00              Gotye
$9.00              Clive Palmer
$12                  Jeff Kennett, Derryn Hinch
$13                  Alan Jones
$14                  Tony Abbott, Bill Shorten
$15                  Andrew Bolt
$17                  360
$19                  Mike Baird, Campbell Newman
$21                  Kevin Rudd, Jacqui Lambie
$26                 Julia Gillard, John Howard

What colour will Napthine’s tie be at the debate?

$1.30             Blue
$7.00              Black
$8.00             Gold
$11                  Purple, Red
$12                  Green
$13                  Silver
$16                  Pink
$21                 Rainbow

What colour will Andrews’ tie be at the debate?

$1.30             Red
$7.00              Blue
$8.00              Green
$9.00              Purple
$11                  Brown
$12                  Pink
$13                  Silver, Grey
$14                  Yellow
$17                  Orange, Black
$26                 Australian flag
$34                 Black with CMFEU slogan

How Many times will the East-West Link be mentioned (in separate statements)

$21                  Zero
$7.00               1
$5.00               2
$4.00               3
$3.00             4
$4.00               5
$5.00               six or more

Will Daniel Andrews be asked about his union background?

$1.20             Yes
$4.00               No

How many times will Daniel Andrews mention Education in his opening statement?

$16.00             Zero
$4.50               1
$3.25               2
$2.50             3
$4.00               4
$5.00               5 or more

 
Albert Park
$1.33               Labor              

$3.50               Coalition
$15                  Tex Perkins

Altona
$1.01               Labor              

$12                  Coalition

Bass
$1.02          Coalition             

$10                  Labor

Bayswater
$1.37           Coalition
$2.90               Labor

Bellarine
$1.22               Labor

$3.90               Coalition

Benambra
$1.01           Coalition
$12                    Labor

Bendigo East
$1.06               Labor
$7.50               Coalition

Bendigo West
$1.06               Labor
$7.50               Coalition

Bentleigh
$1.35               Labor            
 (out from $1.30)              
$2.80               Coalition          (in from $3.30)

Box Hill
$1.05            Coalition         

$6.00               Labor

Brighton
$1.02           Coalition
$10                   Labor

Broadmeadows
$1.01               Labor
$12                  Coalition

Brunswick
$1.10               Labor              

$11                    Greens
$14                  Coalition

Bulleen
$1.01          Coalition            

$12                  Labor

Bundoora
$1.01               Labor
$12                  Coalition

Buninyong
$1.08               Labor              

$7.00               Coalition

Burwood
$1.20           Coalition         

$4.00               Labor

Carrum
$1.26               Labor           
 (out from $1.20)              
$3.50               Coalition          (in from $4.00)

Caulfield
$1.03          Coalition
$10                  Labor

Clarinda
$1.01               Labor            

$12                  Coalition

Cranbourne
$1.08               Labor              

$7.00               Coalition

Croydon
$1.02           Coalition
$11                    Labor

Dandenong
$1.01               Labor           

$12                  Coalition

Eildon
$1.10           Coalition         

$6.00               Labor

Eltham
$1.15               Labor              

$5.00               Coalition

Essendon
$1.04               Labor
$8.50               Coalition

Euroa
$1.02            Coalition
$10                     Labor

Evelyn
$1.03           Coalition
$10                    Labor

Ferntree Gully
$1.10            Coalition            

$6.00                Labor

Footscray
$1.05               Labor
$7.00               Coalition

Forest Hill
$1.85            Coalition
$1.85                 Labor

Frankston
$1.15               Labor              

$5.00               Coalition
$21                  Geoff Shaw

Geelong
$1.15               Labor
$5.00               Coalition

Gembrook
$1.14             Coalition
$5.00                Labor

Gippsland East
$1.01             Coalition
$12                      Labor

Gippsland South
$1.01             Coalition
$12                      Labor

Hastings
$1.14             Coalition            

$5.00                  Labor

Hawthorn
$1.01           Coalition
$12                   Labor

Ivanhoe
$1.12               Labor              

$7.00               Coalition
$13                Craig Langdon

Kew
$1.01          Coalition            

$12                  Labor

Keysborough
$1.01               Labor           

$12                  Coalition

Kororoit
$1.01               Labor           

$12                  Coalition

Lara
$1.01               Labor           

$12                  Coalition

Lowan
$1.01          Coalition
$12                  Labor

Macedon
$1.40               Labor              

$2.75               Coalition

Malvern
$1.01            Coalition
$12                     Labor

Melbourne
$1.40             Labor
$2.75               Greens
$21                  Coalition

Melton
$1.01               Labor           

$12                  Coalition

Mildura
$1.01          Coalition
$12                  Labor

Mill Park
$1.01               Labor
$12                  Coalition

Monbulk
$1.15               Labor
$5.00               Coalition

Mordialloc
$1.55          Coalition
$2.30               Labor

Mornington
$1.01               Coalition          

$12                  Labor

Morwell
$1.70             Nationals                              (in from $1.73)
$3.50               Labor                                       (steady)
$4.50               Tracie Lund Independent    (steady)

Mount Waverly
$1.14               Coalition          

$5.00                   Labor

Mulgrave
$1.05               Labor              

$8.00               Coalition

Murray Plains
$1.01          Coalition          

$12                  Labor

Narracan
$1.01           Coalition          

$12                  Labor

Narre Warren North
$1.07               Labor
$7.00               Coalition

Narre Warren South
$1.10               Labor
$6.00               Coalition

Nepean
$1.02         Coalition          

$10                  Labor

Niddrie
$1.04               Labor              

$8.50               Coalition

Northcote
$1.04            Labor              

$13                  Greens
$16                  Coalition
$21                  Kris Schroeder (Rock ‘n’ Roll Party)

Oakleigh
$1.04               Labor           

$8.50               Coalition

Ovens Valley
$1.01         Coalition           

$12                  Labor

Pascoe Vale
$1.01               Labor           

$12                  Coalition

Polwarth
$1.02         Coalition
$10                  Labor

Prahran
$1.20          Coalition
$4.00               Labor

Preston
$1.01               Labor           

$12                  Coalition

Richmond
$1.26               Labor            
  (out from $1.20)              
$4.00               Greens             (in from $5.00)
$16                  Coalition          (steady)

Ringwood
$1.37               Coalition         

$2.90               Labor

Ripon
$1.10             Coalition
$5.00                 Labor

Rowville
$1.02          Coalition           

$10                  Labor

Sandringham
$1.01          Coalition           

$12                  Labor

Shepparton
$1.01          Coalition
$12                  Labor

South Barwon
$1.45         Coalition
$2.50               Labor

South-West Coast
$1.04          Coalition         

$9.00               Labor

St Albans
$1.02               Labor           

$10                  Coalition

Sunbury
$1.04               Labor              

$9.00               Coalition

Sydenham
$1.01               Labor
$12                  Coalition

Tarneit
$1.02               Labor              

$10                  Coalition

Thomastown
$1.01               Labor           

$12                  Coalition

Warrandyte
$1.01         Coalition           

$12                  Labor

Wendouree
$1.10               Labor
$6.00               Coalition

Werribee
$1.01               Labor
$12                  Coalition

Williamstown
$1.01               Labor
$12                  Coalition

Yan Yean
$1.10               Labor              

$6.00               Coalition

Yuroke
$1.01               Labor           

$12                   Coalition