Punters Ignore Dire Financial Forecast

The Federal Government is aiming for a budget surplus in 2016/17 but online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au continues to see money come in for the budget to be back in the black post 2017/18.

The budget not being in surplus before 2017/18 has firmed from $2.50 in $1.95 under the weight of punter support.

The budget matching up with today’s PEFO forecasts of a budget surplus by 2016/17 follows in the market, firming from $2.40 into $2.20. A 2015/16 surplus has blown out from $3.25 to $7.00.

“Despite today’s PEFO announcement, Aussie punters continue to bet on a budget surplus not eventuating for at least another four years,” sportsbet.com.au’s Ben Hawes said.

The Coalition remain at $1.15 to win the September 7 election, with Labor at $5.50.

(prices in brackets from 11 July)
When will a budget surplus be achieved?
$21.00 2013/2014 (out from $15)
$13.00 2014/2015 (out from $9.00)
$7.00 2015/2016 (out from $3.25)
$2.20 2016/2017 (in from $2.40)
$1.95 Not before 2017/2018+ (in from $2.30)

Federal Election winner
$1.15 Coalition (steady)
$5.50 Labor (steady)

Bets Coming 3 To 1 For Labor But Big Money Backs Abbot

Labor’s hopes of winning the Federal Election continue to drift, with their price now out to $5.50 with online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au, but for every bet placed on the Coalition to salute, three are going on Kevin Rudd and Labor.

The Coalition, who’ve now firmed into $1.14, have attracted 75 percent of all money staked on who’ll win the election market but have only attracted one third of the bets Labor have.

“More than three times the amount of bets have been placed on Labor, but importantly, almost three times the amount of overall money wagered has been on the Coalition,” sportsbet.com.au’s Ben Hawes said.

“There’s still a large portion of the punting community that think Labor can pull off an upset at the bigger odds. But we’re writing the big bets on the short priced Coalition.”

Sportsbet.com.au has also opened a handicap market on the election winner market and initially gave Labor a 10.5 seat head start. However, that has now moved out to 14.5 as punters are backing the Coalition to win the election by more than 14.5 seats.

Federal Election Betting

$1.14 Coalition (in from $1.15)
$5.50 Labor (steady)

Federal Election Winner Handicap Betting

$1.85 Coalition -14.5 seats
$1.85 Labor +14.5 seats

Plunge On Rudd To Win Debate

Punters with online bookmaker to sportsbet.com.au have launched into Kevin Rudd winning Sunday’s first leaders debate, with 86 percent of all money wagered on the market going on the Prime Minister.

Rudd is the $1.40 favourite, with Tony Abbott the $2.80 outsider, while a tied debate is paying $9.00. Despite the flood of money for Rudd to out duel Abbott, the Coalition have firmed into $1.21 to win the September 7 election thanks to sustained punter support. Labor continue to go in the wrong direction, drifting from $4.00 out to $4.50.

“Hair flicks or not, punters have jumped on Kevin Rudd the debater to roll Tony Abbott on Sunday but they’re deserting Kevin Rudd the PM to win the election,” sportsbet.com.au’s Ben Hawes said.

With a handful of key seats crucial to the outcome of the election, sportsbet.com.au has outlined what the punters are saying 29 days out from polling day:

Dobell – Punters convinced the Coalition pick up Dobell. 79% of all money bet on Dobell on the Coalition ($1.50). 17% on Labor and just 3% on Craig Thomson, who is at the big odds of $17.
Greenway – Ironically, money is coming in 6 to 1 for the Coalition to win Greenway from Labor. Jaymes Diaz is paying $1.40 and Michelle Rowland is at $2.80.
Eden-Monaro – The Coalition have firmed from $2.50 into $2.20 in recent days, attracting 54% of all money. Labor remain favourites at $1.57 but are on the drift.
Lindsay – Punters have spoken loudly here with 93% of all money bet on Lindsay going on the Coalition. Labor’s David Bradbury friendless at $2.50.
Melbourne – Money suggests Labor might steal this seat from the Greens with 57% of money staked on Labor. 40% has been bet on the Greens and 3% on the Coalition at huge odds of $21.
Brisbane – Labor narrow favourites at $1.75, but money is coming in 3 to 1 in their favour. The Coalition, who were as low as $1.20, are now paying $1.85.
Forde – Peter Beattie’s arrival saw Labor firm from $1.75 into $1.20 to snare Forde but overnight they’ve eased out to $1.33. Money is 55/45 in favour of the Coalition.
Flynn – Coalition are the $1.60 favourites but Labor has attracted 80% of the money bet on Flynn. Coalition were once $1.05. Labor are at $2.25, in from $5.00.
Hindmarsh – One of the most volatile seats. Both Labor and the Coalition were priced at $1.90 but the return of Kevin Rudd has seen Labor firm into $1.40 to win the electorate.
Braddon – Money is coming in 3 to 1 for the Coalition to win Braddon from Labor. Coalition firm from $1.65 into $1.40 over the last three weeks.
Brand – Despite being the $2.75 outsiders, the Coalition have attracted 75% of all money wagered on Brand suggesting punters think the Coalition can win the seat from Labor ($1.40).

Sunday’s Press Club Debate winner
$1.40 Kevin Rudd (in from $1.50)
$2.80 Tony Abbott (out from $2.40)
$9.00 Tie (steady)

Dobell
$1.50 Coalition (out from $1.40)
$2.30 Labor (in from $2.50)
$17 Independent (steady)
$34 PUP (out from $31)
$41 Any other (steady)
$41 Greens (steady)

Greenway
$1.40 Coalition (steady)
$2.80 Labor (steady)
$26 PUP (steady)
$51 Any other (steady)

Eden-Monaro
$1.57 Labor (out from $1.50)
$2.20 Coalition (in from $2.50)
$26 PUP (steady)
$34 Any other (steady)

Lindsay
$1.50 Coalition (steady)
$2.50 Labor (steady)
$26 PUP (steady)
$31 Any other (steady)

Melbourne
$1.55 Labor (out from $1.40)
$2.20 Greens (in from $2.65)
$21 Coalition (steady)
$26 PUP (steady)

Brisbane
$1.75 Labor (steady)
$1.85 Coalition (steady)
$26 PUP (steady)
$41 Greens (steady)
$51 Any other (steady)

Forde
$1.33 Labor (out from $1.20)
$3.00 Coalition (in from $3.50)
$21 PUP (steady)
$26 Greens (steady)
$34 KAP (steady)
$51 Any other (steady)

Flynn
$1.60 Coalition (steady)
$2.25 Labor (steady)
$16 PUP (steady)
$36 Any other (steady)

Hindmarsh
$1.40 Labor (steady)
$2.75 Coalition (steady)
$26 PUP (steady)
$41 Any other (steady)

Braddon
$1.40 Coalition (steady)
$2.70 Labor (steady)
$26 PUP (steady)
$34 Any other (steady)

Brand
$1.40 Labor (steady)
$2.50 Coalition (steady)
$26 PUP (steady)
$34 Any other (steady)

Federal Election winner
$1.21 Coalition (in from $1.24)
$4.50 Labor (out from $4.00)

Labor Narrows The Gap But Coalition Still Favourites In 85 Electorates

Labor can put the Queensland seat of Forde in its column but the ALP still trails the Coalition 85 seats to 63, according to punters at Sportingbet Australia.

In Forde, Labor has been backed from $2.05 outsiders into clear-cut $1.25 favourites at Sportingbet since the announcement former premier Peter Beattie would contest the Queensland seat.

Independent MP Andrew Wilkie is $1.18 to retain Denison and Bob Katter is $1.04 at Sportingbet to retain Kennedy in the remaining two other seats in the House of Representatives.

The odds are close in a number of seats across the country.

In New South Wales, the Coalition is only a narrow $1.75 favourite at Sportingbet to win Banks and $1.72 to win Robertson.

In Queensland, betting is tight in the seat of Brisbane with Labor narrow $1.65 favourites, while the Coalition just holds favouritism in Herbert ($1.60) and Longman ($1.75).

Melbourne is the most closely contested seat in Victoria according to punters, with the ALP $1.55 against the Greens at $2.30.

Meanwhile, the Coalition remain solid $1.20 favourites at Sportingbet to win the election. The ALP’s odds have firmed slightly from $4.80 into $4.50.

“The ALP’s odds had drifted all week but we finally found some punters willing to back Labor on Friday,” Sportingbet Australia spokesman Andrew Brown said.

2013 Federal Election Betting

The closely contested seats

New South Wales electorates
Banks
Liberal/National party $1.75
ALP $2.00

Robertson
Liberal/National party $1.72
ALP $2.00

Queensland electorates
Brisbane

ALP $1.65
Liberal National Party

Herbert
Liberal National Party $1.60
ALP $2.25

Longman
Liberal National Party $1.75
ALP $1.95

Victoria electorates
Melbourne
ALP $1.55
Greens $2.30

Winning Party

Coalition $1.20
ALP $5.00

Correct election result

Coalition 81 to 85 seats $4.25
Coalition 76 to 80 seats $4.50
Coalition 91 to 100 seats $4.80
Coalition 86 to 90 seats $5.00
Labor 76 to 80 seats $6.00
Hung Parliament $7.00
Coalition 101 or more seats $9.00
Labor 81 to 85 seats $12.00
Labor 86 to 90 seats $26.00
Labor 91 to 100 seats $29.00
Labor 101 or more seats $51.00

Julia Gilard Odds On To Snub Kevin Rudd

Will she or won’t she? That’s the question we all want answered about whether or not former PM Julia Gillard will join current Prime Minister Kevin Rudd on his campaign trail.

Online bookmaker to sportsbet.com.au is taking wagers on whether or not Gillard will join Rudd, with $1.33 on offer for her not to assist Rudd’s campaign to maintain power for Labor. $3.00 is available for her to join Rudd.

And if the scenario happens to unfold, Gillard is favoured to go door knocking with Rudd in her home state of Victoria, which heads the betting at $1.50.

South Australia follows at $3.00, ahead of Tasmania ($10), the ACT ($11), Northern Territory ($13), New South Wales ($15), Queensland ($21) and Western Australia ($34).

“Kevin Rudd campaigned with Julia Gillard in 2010. Will she return the favour in 2013? It looks as likley as New South Wales winning a State of Origin series!” sportsbet.com.au’s Ben Hawes said.

Will Julia Gillard campaign will Kevin Rudd?
$1.33 No
$3.00 Yes

Where will Julia Gillard campaign with Kevin Rudd first?
$1.50 Victoria
$3.00 South Australia
$10 Tasmania
$11 Australian Capital Territory
$13 Northern Territory
$15 New South Wales
$21 Queensland
$34 Western Australia

Punters Back Labor Party In Forde Election Betting

Punters have crunched the odds of the ALP winning Forde from $2.05 into $1.25 at Sportingbet Australia after the announcement former premier Peter Beattie would contest the Queensland seat for Labor.

The Coalition’s odds of winning Forde have drifted from $1.60 out to $4.00 at Sportingbet.

“Punters have piled on the ALP to win Forde and they’ve backed Mr. Beattie into Black Caviar odds,” Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said.

“As soon as the news broke, punters put whatever they could on the ALP to win the seat,” Sullivan said.

Queensland remains a $1.50 favourite at Sportingbet to be the state that the Coalition receives its highest Two Party-Preferred percentage. Queensland is $16 with Sportingbet to be the state the ALP receives its highest Two Party-Preferred percentage.

Labor’s odds of winning the election continue to drift. The ALP is $4.00 out to $4.80 at Sportingbet since the official campaign began on Monday. The Coalition has firmed from $1.25 into $1.18.

2013 federal election

Queensland seat of Forde
ALP $1.20
Liberal National Party $4.00
Greens $41.00
Independent $81.00
Any other party $51.00

Coalition’s best state excluding WA (Two Party-Preferred)
Queensland $1.50
NSW $3.00
South Australia $6.50
Victoria $21.00
Tasmania $34.00

ALP’s best state (Two Party-Preferred)
Tasmania $1.60
Victoria $2.65
South Australia $7.50
NSW $13.00
Queensland $16.00
Western Australia $101.00

Winning Party
Coalition $1.18
ALP $4.80

Correct election result
Coalition 81 to 85 seats $4.25
Coalition 76 to 80 seats $4.50
Coalition 91 to 100 seats $4.80
Coalition 86 to 90 seats $5.00
Labor 76 to 80 seats $6.00
Hung Parliament $7.00
Coalition 101 or more seats $9.00
Labor 81 to 85 seats $12.00
Labor 86 to 90 seats $26.00
Labor 91 to 100 seats $29.00
Labor 101 or more seats $51.00

Labor Tipped To Lose Two Seats In Tassie Elections

Once a stronghold for the Labor party, they now appear likely to only break even in Tasmania one month out from the election, tipped to lose two seats according to betting markets by online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au.

While they are $1.20 favourites in Franklin and $1.40 favourites in Lyons, a swing looks set in Bass and Braddon when the Coalition have been well backed at $1.20 and $1.40 respectively.

There appears likely to be no change in the seat of Denison, where Andrew Wilkie remains $1.23 favourite ahead of Labor ($3.50), the Coalition ($21), the Palmer United Party ($26) and the Greens ($34).

“Not only are the Coalition now favourites in Bass and Braddon, but punters are certainly agreeing, with the majority of money coming for them in both markets,” said sportsbet.com.au’s Shaun Anderson.

Labor are currently the $4.00 outsiders to win the Federal Election. The Coalition are $1.24 favourites. Sportsbet.com.au has over 200 markets open on the federal election, Click here to see all markets.

Tasmanian Electorates – Federal Election

Bass (TAS)
$1.20 Coalition
$4.00 Labor
$26 PUP
$41 Any other

Braddon (TAS)
$1.40 Coalition
$2.70 Labor
$26 PUP
$34 Any other

Denison (TAS)
$1.23 Andrew Wilkie
$3.50 Labor
$21 Coalition
$26 PUP
$34 Greens

Franklin (TAS)
$1.25 Labor
$3.50 Coalition
$26 PUP
$34 Greens

Lyons (TAS)
$1.40 Labor
$2.75 Coalition
$26 PUP
$34 Any other

Federal Election
$1.24 Coalition
$4.00 Labor

Seats Tipped To be Split In Northern Territory

It appears to be business as usual at the Top End only one month out from the Federal Election, with Labor and the Coalition tipped to split the two electorates of Solomon and Lingiari as they did in 2010 according the betting markets by online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au.

If there is to be a swing, it looks more likely to happen in Solomon where despite the Coalition being $1.45 favourites, there has been some punter support for Labor at $2.65. The Palmer United Party is considered a long shot at $26, while any other is priced at $51.

Labor have been well backed at $1.50 in the seat of Lingiari, with the Coalition outsiders at $2.50 followed by the PUP ($26) and any other ($51).

“The two parties look set to split the two electorates again as per 2010, but if there is going to be an upset punters are seeing value in Labor in Solomon and there has been genuine support for them there,” said sportsbet.com.au’s Shaun Anderson.

Labor are currently the $4.00 outsiders to win the Federal Election. The Coalition are $1.24 favourites. Sportsbet.com.au has over 200 markets open on the federal election, Click here to see all markets.

Northern Territory Electorates – Federal Election Betting Odds

Lingiari (NT)
$1.50 Labor
$2.50 Coalition
$51 Any other

Solomon (NT)
$1.45 Coalition
$2.65 Labor
$26 PUP
$51 Any other

Federal Election
$1.24 Coalition
$4.00 Labor